Selected outcome
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ · 1%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
1%
Open · $95 24h · $354 vol
Bid 0.6¢ · Ask 1.8¢
- Flávio Bolsonaro 10-12%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–12%?
3%
Open · $278 24h · $438 vol
Bid 1.2¢ · Ask 5¢
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-10%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–10%?
5%
Open · $227 24h · $332 vol
Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 9¢
- Flávio Bolsonaro 6-8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 6–8%?
11%
Open · $1,394 24h · $1,409 vol
Bid 8¢ · Ask 13¢
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-6%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?
26%
Open · $1,340 24h · $1,363 vol
Bid 24¢ · Ask 27¢
- Flávio Bolsonaro 2-4%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
27%
Open · $731 24h · $1,219 vol
Bid 25¢ · Ask 29¢
- Flávio Bolsonaro <2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?
16%
Open · $544 24h · $549 vol
Bid 15¢ · Ask 17¢
Lula da Silva <2%Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?
11%
Open · $216 24h · $221 vol
Bid 9¢ · Ask 13¢
- Lula da Silva 2-4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
5%
Open · $95 24h · $100 vol
Bid 1.2¢ · Ask 9¢
- Lula da Silva 4-6%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?
1%
Open · $95 24h · $250 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 1.8¢
- Lula da Silva 6-8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 6–8%?
1%
Open · $120 24h · $469 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 1.8¢
- Lula da Silva 8-10%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–10%?
1%
Open · $95 24h · $100 vol
Bid 0.5¢ · Ask 1.9¢
- Lula da Silva 10-12%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–12%?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $262 vol
Ask 1¢
- Lula da Silva 12%+
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
1%
Open · $95 24h · $100 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 0.9¢
OtherWill another person win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).