Selected outcome
↑ 1550
wide spread 21–46%
21%
↑ 1550 · 21%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
↑ 1540Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?
53%
Open · $0 24h · $7,153 vol
wide spread 34–64%
Bid 33.5¢ · Ask 64.1¢
- ↑ 1550
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
21%
Open · $0 24h · $55k vol
wide spread 21–46%
Bid 21¢ · Ask 46¢
- ↑ 1600
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
9%
Open · $1 24h · $27k vol
Bid 5.5¢ · Ask 12¢
- ↑ 1650
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
4%
Open · $0 24h · $9,629 vol
Bid 2.6¢ · Ask 5.9¢
- ↑ 1700
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?
3%
Open · $0 24h · $9,301 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 3.8¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".