Selected outcome
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
23%
China ballistic missile launch by December 31? · 23%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
Price
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
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Markets

Open · $20 24h · $16k vol
Bid 21¢ · Ask 25¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.