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France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?

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Selected outcome

November 15

3%

November 15 · 3%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET

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Markets

  • October 31

    France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?

    1%

    Open · $4,603 24h · $57k vol

    Bid 0.8¢ · Ask 1¢

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  • November 15

    France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?

    3%

    Open · $2,088 24h · $80k vol

    Bid 2.3¢ · Ask 2.7¢

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  • December 31

    France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?

    3%

    Open · $2,508 24h · $74k vol

    Bid 2.5¢ · Ask 3.1¢

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Event statistics
24h vol
$9,199
Volume
$211k
Liquidity
$145k
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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