Selected outcome
October 14
Yes
October 14 · Yes
- Scheduled end
- Nov 30, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
October 31Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $271k vol
November 30Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $91k vol
October 15Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $246k vol
October 10Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $40k vol
October 14Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $60k vol
October 23Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $39k vol
October 12Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $24k vol
October 9Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $4,814 vol
October 13Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $115k vol
October 16Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $47k vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
Settled
- Scheduled end
- Nov 30, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.