Selected outcome
October 14
Yes
October 14 · Yes
- Scheduled end
- Nov 30, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
October 31Gemini Argon released by October 31, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $25k vol
November 30Gemini Argon released by November 30, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $12k vol
October 14Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $15k vol
October 12Gemini Argon released by October 12, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $3,523 vol
October 9Gemini Argon released by October 9, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $1,047 vol
October 16Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $20k vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
Settled
- Scheduled end
- Nov 30, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Gemini Argon" or a model qualifying under the terms below, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.