Selected outcome
October 13
Yes
October 13 · Yes
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
On or prior to October 8Will Gemini Argon be released on or prior to October 8, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $982 vol
October 9Will Gemini Argon be released on October 9, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $508 vol
October 10Will Gemini Argon be released on October 10, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $838 vol
October 11Will Gemini Argon be released on October 11, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $947 vol
October 12Will Gemini Argon be released on October 12, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $1,879 vol
October 13Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $38k vol
October 14Will Gemini Argon be released on October 14, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $13k vol
October 15Will Gemini Argon be released on October 15, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $5,273 vol
October 16Will Gemini Argon be released on October 16, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $2,182 vol
October 17Will Gemini Argon be released on October 17, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $517 vol
October 18Will Gemini Argon be released on October 18, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $931 vol
October 19Will Gemini Argon be released on October 19, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $723 vol
October 20Will Gemini Argon be released on October 20, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $1,392 vol
October 21Will Gemini Argon be released on October 21, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $1,118 vol
October 22Will Gemini Argon be released on October 22, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $757 vol
October 23Will Gemini Argon be released on October 23, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $1,352 vol
October 24Will Gemini Argon be released on October 24, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $686 vol
October 25Will Gemini Argon be released on October 25, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $700 vol
October 26Will Gemini Argon be released on October 26, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $734 vol
October 27Will Gemini Argon be released on October 27, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $5,312 vol
October 28Will Gemini Argon be released on October 28, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $672 vol
October 29Will Gemini Argon be released on October 29, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $2,419 vol
October 30Will Gemini Argon be released on October 30, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $4,144 vol
October 31Will Gemini Argon be released on October 31, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $3,429 vol
No release by October 31Will there be no Gemini Argon release by October 31, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $8,959 vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
Settled
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's "Gemini Argon," or a model qualifying under the terms below, is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.