Selected outcome
November 15
wide spread 82–96%
90%
November 15 · 90%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- githubstatus.com (opens in a new tab)
Price
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Markets
October 31GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?
87%
Open · $1,214 24h · $1,214 vol
wide spread 78–97%
Bid 78¢ · Ask 97¢
November 15GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?
90%
Open · $707 24h · $707 vol
wide spread 82–96%
Bid 82¢ · Ask 96¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.