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Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?

Openone winner

Selected outcome

8.0 – 8.1

7%

8.0 – 8.1 · 7%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Jan 7, 2027 ET
Resolution source
earthquake.usgs.gov (opens in a new tab)

Price

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Markets

  • 7.9 or below

    Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?

    No quote

    Open · $0 24h · $21k vol

    wide spread 64–79%

    Bid 64¢ · Ask 79¢

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  • 8.0 – 8.1

    Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.0 – 8.1?

    7%

    Open · $0 24h · $2,378 vol

    Bid 4¢ · Ask 9¢

    Open full market view →
  • 8.2 – 8.3

    Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.2 – 8.3?

    12%

    Open · $0 24h · $2,261 vol

    Bid 8.2¢ · Ask 15.9¢

    Open full market view →
  • 8.4 – 8.5

    Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.4 – 8.5?

    1%

    Open · $0 24h · $662 vol

    Bid 0.5¢ · Ask 1¢

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  • 8.6 – 8.7

    Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.6 – 8.7?

    3%

    Open · $0 24h · $741 vol

    Bid 0.5¢ · Ask 5.4¢

    Open full market view →
  • 8.8 – 8.9

    Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.8 – 8.9?

    1%

    Open · $0 24h · $492 vol

    Bid 0.2¢ · Ask 1.7¢

    Open full market view →
  • 9.0 or above

    Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 9.0 or above?

    4%

    Open · $0 24h · $1,028 vol

    Bid 0.9¢ · Ask 7.7¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
$0
Volume
$28k
Liquidity
$3,474
Open int.
—

How this resolves

One winner.

Scheduled end
Jan 7, 2027 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution. An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.

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