Selected outcome
50%+
Yes
50%+ · Yes
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
Price
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Markets
60%+Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
20%
Open · $110 24h · $22k vol
Bid 19¢ · Ask 20¢
- 65%+
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
7%
Open · $10 24h · $11k vol
Bid 5¢ · Ask 8¢
- 70%+
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?
4%
Open · $0 24h · $4,564 vol
Bid 3¢ · Ask 4.7¢
Resolved
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".