Selected outcome
45%+
wide spread 42–54%
45%+
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- agi.safe.ai (opens in a new tab)
Price
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Markets
45%+Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
No quote
Open · $42 24h · $65k vol
wide spread 42–54%
Bid 42.4¢ · Ask 54.2¢
- 50%+
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
38%
Open · $341 24h · $39k vol
Bid 34¢ · Ask 41¢
- 55%+
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
19%
Open · $0 24h · $37k vol
Bid 18¢ · Ask 19¢
- 60%+
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
12%
Open · $6 24h · $21k vol
Bid 10¢ · Ask 13¢
- 65%+
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
6%
Open · $0 24h · $2,968 vol
Bid 4.2¢ · Ask 7.5¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".