Selected outcome
18°C
<1%
18°C · <1%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 21, 8:00 AM ET
- Resolution source
- weather.gov (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
10°C or belowWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C or below on October 21?
<1%
Open · $480 24h · $567 vol
last
Ask 0.1¢
11°CWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 21?
No quote
Open · $560 24h · $655 vol
Ask 0.1¢
12°CWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 21?
No quote
Open · $486 24h · $928 vol
Ask 0.2¢
13°CWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 21?
No quote
Open · $596 24h · $1,207 vol
Ask 0.1¢
14°CWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 21?
No quote
Open · $1,353 24h · $2,050 vol
Ask 0.1¢
15°CWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on October 21?
<1%
Open · $1,583 24h · $2,656 vol
last
Ask 0.1¢
16°CWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on October 21?
98%
Open · $3,145 24h · $3,919 vol
Bid 96.6¢ · Ask 99¢
17°CWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on October 21?
3%
Open · $2,252 24h · $3,129 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 4¢
18°CWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on October 21?
<1%
Open · $1,712 24h · $3,024 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 0.6¢
19°CWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on October 21?
No quote
Open · $614 24h · $720 vol
Ask 0.3¢
20°C or higherWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on October 21?
No quote
Open · $226 24h · $333 vol
Ask 0.2¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Oct 21, 8:00 AM ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.