Selected outcome
October 15
wide spread 15–26%
21%
October 15 · 21%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 2, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
October 2Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 2?
14%
Open · $98 24h · $2,599 vol
Bid 12¢ · Ask 17¢
- October 4
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 4?
91%
Open · $198 24h · $2,019 vol
Bid 88¢ · Ask 94¢
- October 5
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 5?
95%
Open · $75 24h · $2,035 vol
Bid 93.8¢ · Ask 96.8¢
- October 8
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 8?
94%
Open · $0 24h · $1,316 vol
Bid 92.9¢ · Ask 95.5¢
- October 9
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 9?
14%
Open · $59 24h · $1,598 vol
Bid 10¢ · Ask 18¢
- October 14
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 14?
11%
Open · $43 24h · $1,772 vol
Bid 6¢ · Ask 15¢
- October 15
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15?
21%
Open · $134 24h · $47k vol
wide spread 15–26%
Bid 15¢ · Ask 26¢
- October 16
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 16?
No quote
Open · $20 24h · $787 vol
wide spread 11–22%
Bid 11¢ · Ask 22¢
- October 17
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 17?
16%
Open · $110 24h · $605 vol
Bid 12¢ · Ask 19¢
- October 18
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 18?
No quote
Open · $67 24h · $787 vol
wide spread 60–71%
Bid 60¢ · Ask 70.9¢
- October 19
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 19?
50%
Open · $90 24h · $956 vol
Bid 46¢ · Ask 53¢
- October 20
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 20?
20%
Open · $131 24h · $384 vol
wide spread 18–29%
Bid 18¢ · Ask 29¢
- October 21
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 21?
No quote
Open · $184 24h · $388 vol
wide spread 47–83%
Bid 47¢ · Ask 83¢
- October 22
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 22?
63%
Open · $108 24h · $358 vol
Bid 58¢ · Ask 67¢
- October 23
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 23?
38%
Open · $20 24h · $20 vol
Bid 33¢ · Ask 42¢
- October 24
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 24?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $0 vol
wide spread 7–92%
Bid 7¢ · Ask 92¢
- October 25
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 25?
59%
Open · $0 24h · $361 vol
wide spread 3–59%
Bid 3¢ · Ask 59¢
- October 26
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 26?
20%
Open · $0 24h · $116 vol
wide spread 4–91%
Bid 4¢ · Ask 91¢
- October 27
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 27?
21%
Open · $0 24h · $65 vol
wide spread 4–90%
Bid 4¢ · Ask 90¢
- October 28
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 28?
21%
Open · $0 24h · $66 vol
wide spread 5–90%
Bid 5¢ · Ask 90¢
- October 29
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 29?
21%
Open · $0 24h · $63 vol
wide spread 4–90%
Bid 4¢ · Ask 90¢
- October 30
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 30?
20%
Open · $0 24h · $85 vol
wide spread 5–90%
Bid 5¢ · Ask 90¢
- October 31
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 31?
18%
Open · $0 24h · $70 vol
wide spread 7–90%
Bid 7¢ · Ask 90¢
Resolved
- October 3
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 3?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $2,346 vol
- October 6
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 6?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $1,160 vol
- October 7
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 7?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $1,287 vol
- October 10
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 10?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $1,101 vol
- October 11
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 11?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $613 vol
- October 12
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 12?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $2,388 vol
- October 13
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 13?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $49k vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 2, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.