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How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

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Selected outcome

Below 4.85%

4%

Below 4.85% · 4%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • Below 5.09%

    Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.09% in October?

    68%

    Open · $169 24h · $3,500 vol

    Bid 66¢ · Ask 70¢

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  • Below 5.05%

    Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October?

    52%

    Open · $192 24h · $2,979 vol

    Bid 50¢ · Ask 53¢

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  • Below 5.00%

    Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% in October?

    16%

    Open · $378 24h · $3,546 vol

    Bid 13¢ · Ask 18¢

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  • Below 4.95%

    Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?

    No quote

    Open · $9 24h · $1,489 vol

    wide spread 8–19%

    Bid 8¢ · Ask 19¢

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  • Below 4.90%

    Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% in October?

    5%

    Open · $0 24h · $2,253 vol

    Bid 2.8¢ · Ask 6.6¢

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  • Below 4.85%

    Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.85% in October?

    4%

    Open · $0 24h · $1,428 vol

    Bid 2.4¢ · Ask 5.3¢

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Resolved

Event statistics
24h vol
$748
Volume
$25k
Liquidity
$2,035
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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