Selected outcome
Below 4.45%
23%
Below 4.45% · 23%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 30, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
Below 4.00%Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.00% before 2027?
2%
Open · $0 24h · $7,369 vol
Bid 0.7¢ · Ask 3.7¢
- Below 4.10%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?
3%
Open · $49 24h · $10k vol
Bid 1.3¢ · Ask 4.1¢
- Below 4.20%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% before 2027?
3%
Open · $49 24h · $7,903 vol
Bid 1.9¢ · Ask 3.4¢
- Below 4.25%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?
3%
Open · $10 24h · $5,265 vol
Bid 1.9¢ · Ask 3.1¢
- Below 4.30%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?
4%
Open · $0 24h · $13k vol
Bid 3.1¢ · Ask 4.2¢
- Below 4.35%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.35% before 2027?
9%
Open · $0 24h · $26k vol
Bid 7¢ · Ask 10¢
- Below 4.40%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?
15%
Open · $0 24h · $18k vol
Bid 14¢ · Ask 16¢
- Below 4.45%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?
23%
Open · $0 24h · $29k vol
Bid 22¢ · Ask 23¢
- Below 4.50%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?
36%
Open · $220 24h · $20k vol
Bid 34¢ · Ask 37¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 30, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).