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How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Open

Selected outcome

Below 4.92%

Yes

Below 4.92% · Yes

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • Below 4.89%

    Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.89% in October?

    68%

    Open · $133 24h · $863 vol

    wide spread 53–71%

    Bid 53¢ · Ask 71¢

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  • Below 4.86%

    Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.86% in October?

    No quote

    Open · $140 24h · $969 vol

    wide spread 49–62%

    Bid 49¢ · Ask 62¢

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  • Below 4.83%

    Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.83% in October?

    45%

    Open · $31 24h · $2,595 vol

    wide spread 30–45%

    Bid 30¢ · Ask 45¢

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  • Below 4.80%

    Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% in October?

    24%

    Open · $235 24h · $1,706 vol

    Bid 23¢ · Ask 25¢

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  • Below 4.75%

    Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.75% in October?

    18%

    Open · $67 24h · $2,016 vol

    Bid 14¢ · Ask 21¢

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  • Below 4.70%

    Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?

    13%

    Open · $37 24h · $4,006 vol

    Bid 12¢ · Ask 13¢

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  • Below 4.65%

    Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% in October?

    10%

    Open · $5 24h · $681 vol

    Bid 7¢ · Ask 13¢

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Resolved

Event statistics
24h vol
$648
Volume
$16k
Liquidity
$923
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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