Selected outcome
more than 5
No
more than 5 · No
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 19, 7:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- earthquake.usgs.gov (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
3Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
>99%
Open · $0 24h · $1,930 vol
last
Bid 87.1¢
4Will there be 4 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
<1%
Open · $12 24h · $695 vol
last
Ask 19¢
5Will there be 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
<1%
Open · $0 24h · $1,225 vol
last
Ask 7.9¢
Resolved
0Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $3,506 vol
1Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $4,202 vol
2Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $2,822 vol
more than 5Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $821 vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Oct 19, 7:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.