Selected outcome
14–16
wide spread 56–77%
14–16
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Jan 7, 2027 ET
Price
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Markets
11–13Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
20%
Open · $0 24h · $421k vol
wide spread 7–21%
Bid 7¢ · Ask 21¢
- 14–16
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $190k vol
wide spread 56–77%
Bid 56¢ · Ask 77¢
- 17–19
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
19%
Open · $0 24h · $293k vol
Bid 15¢ · Ask 22¢
- 20+
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $70k vol
Bid 0.6¢ · Ask 2¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Jan 7, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.