Selected outcome
170-189
50%
170-189 · 50%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- portwatch.imf.org (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
<170Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?
3%
Open · $284 24h · $8,889 vol
Bid 1.2¢ · Ask 5.6¢
170-189Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?
50%
Open · $446 24h · $2,275 vol
Bid 48¢ · Ask 52¢
190-209Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?
38%
Open · $546 24h · $2,596 vol
Bid 36¢ · Ask 39¢
210-229Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?
10%
Open · $177 24h · $837 vol
Bid 8.4¢ · Ask 11.4¢
230+Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?
3%
Open · $365 24h · $1,083 vol
Bid 1.3¢ · Ask 5¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.