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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Openone winner

Selected outcome

9-10

1%

9-10 · 1%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • <5

    Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

    64%

    Open · $57 24h · $105k vol

    wide spread 42–65%

    Bid 42¢ · Ask 65¢

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  • 5-6

    Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

    34%

    Open · $200 24h · $120k vol

    wide spread 29–40%

    Bid 29¢ · Ask 40¢

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  • 7-8

    Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

    1%

    Open · $0 24h · $165k vol

    Bid 0.6¢ · Ask 1.7¢

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  • 9-10

    Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

    1%

    Open · $0 24h · $66k vol

    Bid 0.2¢ · Ask 1¢

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  • 11-12

    Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

    <1%

    Open · $0 24h · $11k vol

    Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 0.2¢

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  • 13-14

    Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

    <1%

    Open · $0 24h · $11k vol

    last

    Ask 0.1¢

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  • 15-16

    Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

    <1%

    Open · $0 24h · $32k vol

    last

    Ask 0.1¢

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  • >16

    Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

    <1%

    Open · $0 24h · $15k vol

    Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 0.6¢

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Event statistics
24h vol
$258
Volume
$525k
Liquidity
$14k
Open int.
—

How this resolves

One winner.

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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