Selected outcome
500k to 525k
wide spread 9–49%
14%
500k to 525k · 14%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Feb 28, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- ir.tesla.com (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
<400kWill Tesla deliver less than 400000 vehicles in Q4 2026
No quote
Open · $248 24h · $248 vol
wide spread 11–25%
Bid 11¢ · Ask 25¢
- 400k to 425k
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q4 2026
16%
Open · $166 24h · $344 vol
wide spread 13–33%
Bid 13¢ · Ask 33¢
- 425k to 450k
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q4 2026
14%
Open · $186 24h · $186 vol
Bid 13¢ · Ask 15¢
- 450k to 475k
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q4 2026
9%
Open · $196 24h · $196 vol
wide spread 4–50%
Bid 4¢ · Ask 50¢
- 475k to 500k
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q4 2026
16%
Open · $302 24h · $302 vol
Bid 11¢ · Ask 20¢
- 500k to 525k
Will Tesla deliver between 500000 and 525000 vehicles in Q4 2026
14%
Open · $164 24h · $164 vol
wide spread 9–49%
Bid 9¢ · Ask 49¢
- 525k to 550k
Will Tesla deliver between 525000 and 550000 vehicles in Q4 2026
7%
Open · $126 24h · $126 vol
wide spread <1–12%
Bid 0.2¢ · Ask 11.9¢
- 550k to 575k
Will Tesla deliver between 550000 and 575000 vehicles in Q4 2026
No quote
Open · $106 24h · $106 vol
wide spread 1–23%
Bid 0.5¢ · Ask 23¢
- 575k+
Will Tesla deliver 575000 or more vehicles in Q4 2026
10%
Open · $352 24h · $352 vol
wide spread 1–27%
Bid 1¢ · Ask 27¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Feb 28, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2026 delivery figures by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.