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How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

Openone winner

Selected outcome

Greater than 8

29%

Greater than 8 · 29%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Jun 30, 2027 ET
Resolution source
tcdata.typhoon.org.cn (opens in a new tab)

Price

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Markets

  • Fewer than 5

    Will fewer than 5 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

    <1%

    Open · $0 24h · $6,110 vol

    last

    Ask 0.9¢

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  • 5

    Will exactly 5 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

    <1%

    Open · $0 24h · $6,572 vol

    last

    Ask 0.1¢

    Open full market view →
  • 6

    Will exactly 6 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

    <1%

    Open · $0 24h · $4,931 vol

    last

    Ask 0.1¢

    Open full market view →
  • 7

    Will exactly 7 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

    No quote

    Open · $1,658 24h · $61k vol

    wide spread 12–28%

    Bid 11.7¢ · Ask 28.1¢

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  • 8

    Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

    43%

    Open · $35 24h · $52k vol

    wide spread 33–51%

    Bid 33¢ · Ask 51¢

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  • Greater than 8

    Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

    29%

    Open · $1,043 24h · $66k vol

    Bid 24¢ · Ask 34¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
$2,736
Volume
$196k
Liquidity
$15k
Open int.
—

How this resolves

One winner.

Scheduled end
Jun 30, 2027 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026. All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall. One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No". If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).

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