Selected outcome
October 12
Yes
October 12 · Yes
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 6, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
October 6Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?
16%
Open · $0 24h · $7,126 vol
Bid 12¢ · Ask 20¢
October 18Israel military action against Lebanon on October 18?
95%
Open · $50 24h · $1,193 vol
wide spread 81–97%
Bid 81.2¢ · Ask 97.4¢
October 19Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?
95%
Open · $1,115 24h · $8,434 vol
Bid 93.8¢ · Ask 96.3¢
October 21Israel military action against Lebanon on October 21?
99%
Open · $192 24h · $1,072 vol
Bid 97.4¢ · Ask 99.9¢
October 22Israel military action against Lebanon on October 22?
89%
Open · $352 24h · $2,440 vol
Bid 87¢ · Ask 90¢
October 23Israel military action against Lebanon on October 23?
85%
Open · $154 24h · $1,364 vol
Bid 83¢ · Ask 86¢
October 24Israel military action against Lebanon on October 24?
90%
Open · $0 24h · $1,767 vol
Bid 87¢ · Ask 93¢
October 25Israel military action against Lebanon on October 25?
86%
Open · $12 24h · $1,292 vol
Bid 84¢ · Ask 87¢
October 26Israel military action against Lebanon on October 26?
86%
Open · $31 24h · $1,293 vol
Bid 84¢ · Ask 87¢
October 27Israel military action against Lebanon on October 27?
83%
Open · $29 24h · $3,923 vol
Bid 80¢ · Ask 85¢
October 28Israel military action against Lebanon on October 28?
94%
Open · $0 24h · $2,727 vol
Bid 93¢ · Ask 95¢
October 29Israel military action against Lebanon on October 29?
85%
Open · $0 24h · $2,544 vol
Bid 81¢ · Ask 88¢
October 30Israel military action against Lebanon on October 30?
87%
Open · $0 24h · $1,594 vol
Bid 85¢ · Ask 88¢
October 31Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?
79%
Open · $51 24h · $3,481 vol
wide spread 75–96%
Bid 75¢ · Ask 96¢
Resolved
October 7Israel military action against Lebanon on October 7?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $2,962 vol
October 8Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $3,836 vol
October 9Israel military action against Lebanon on October 9?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $2,031 vol
October 10Israel military action against Lebanon on October 10?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $1,655 vol
October 11Israel military action against Lebanon on October 11?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $2,982 vol
October 12Israel military action against Lebanon on October 12?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $1,946 vol
October 13Israel military action against Lebanon on October 13?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $1,489 vol
October 14Israel military action against Lebanon on October 14?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $3,159 vol
October 15Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $75k vol
October 16Israel military action against Lebanon on October 16?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $1,598 vol
October 17Israel military action against Lebanon on October 17?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $3,292 vol
October 20Israel military action against Lebanon on October 20?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $3,090 vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 6, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Jerusalem time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.