Selected outcome
December 31
2%
December 31 · 2%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
Price
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Markets
December 31Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
2%
Open · $3,628 24h · $266k vol
Bid 1.9¢ · Ask 3¢
December 31, 2027Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027?
35%
Open · $73 24h · $1,886 vol
Bid 34¢ · Ask 35¢
March 31, 2027Israel withdraws from Lebanon by March 31, 2027?
14%
Open · $232 24h · $2,627 vol
Bid 13¢ · Ask 14¢
June 30, 2027Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2027?
21%
Open · $189 24h · $8,058 vol
Bid 20¢ · Ask 22¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.