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Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Open

Selected outcome

December 31

6%

December 31 · 6%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Jan 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

Event statistics
24h vol
$0
Volume
$4.1M
Liquidity
$13k
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Jan 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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