Selected outcome
January 31
32%
January 31 · 32%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
December 31Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?
22%
Open · $60 24h · $723 vol
wide spread 18–56%
Bid 18¢ · Ask 56¢
January 31Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027?
32%
Open · $55 24h · $861 vol
Bid 27¢ · Ask 36¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 or Claude Haiku 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 6, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Haiku 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.