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Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) released by...?

ClosedSettled

Selected outcome

October 7

Yes

October 7 · Yes

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • October 31

    Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 31, 2026?

    Yes

    Settled · yes · $0 24h · $8,488 vol

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  • December 31

    Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by December 31, 2026?

    Yes

    Settled · yes · $0 24h · $8,110 vol

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  • October 15

    Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026?

    Yes

    Settled · yes · $0 24h · $9,404 vol

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  • October 7

    Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?

    Yes

    Settled · yes · $0 24h · $10k vol

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Event statistics
24h vol
$0
Volume
$40k
Liquidity
—
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Settled

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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