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Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by...?

Open

Selected outcome

December 31

26%

December 31 · 26%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • December 31

    Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?

    26%

    Open · $0 24h · $1,039 vol

    Bid 25¢ · Ask 27¢

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  • January 31

    Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027?

    41%

    Open · $20 24h · $919 vol

    wide spread 24–57%

    Bid 24¢ · Ask 57¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
$20
Volume
$1,958
Liquidity
$876
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model (5.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Sonnet" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Sonnet 5 or Claude Sonnet 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Sonnet 6, while models whose name does not include "Sonnet" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Sonnet 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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