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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Open

Selected outcome

October 15

No

October 15 · No

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Oct 21, 11:59 PM ET

Price

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Markets

  • October 31

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?

    76%

    Open · $24k 24h · $268k vol

    Bid 74.7¢ · Ask 76.8¢

    Open full market view →
  • December 31

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?

    97%

    Open · $833 24h · $16k vol

    Bid 96.9¢ · Ask 97.3¢

    Open full market view →
  • October 24

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?

    18%

    Open · $11k 24h · $120k vol

    Bid 17¢ · Ask 19¢

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  • October 21

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?

    No quote

    Open · $4,425 24h · $39k vol

    wide spread 4–19%

    Bid 3.7¢ · Ask 18.8¢

    Open full market view →
  • October 22

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?

    11%

    Open · $8,363 24h · $32k vol

    Bid 8.3¢ · Ask 13.6¢

    Open full market view →
  • October 26

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?

    No quote

    Open · $3,113 24h · $3,073 vol

    wide spread 23–36%

    Bid 23¢ · Ask 36¢

    Open full market view →
  • October 27

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?

    53%

    Open · $2,345 24h · $2,345 vol

    Bid 52¢ · Ask 54¢

    Open full market view →
  • October 29

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?

    74%

    Open · $4,616 24h · $4,596 vol

    Bid 73¢ · Ask 75¢

    Open full market view →
  • October 30

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?

    73%

    Open · $1,217 24h · $1,217 vol

    Bid 72¢ · Ask 74¢

    Open full market view →
  • October 23

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 23, 2026?

    15%

    Open · $2,853 24h · $2,833 vol

    Bid 13¢ · Ask 17¢

    Open full market view →
  • October 28

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?

    62%

    Open · $1,792 24h · $1,792 vol

    Bid 61¢ · Ask 62¢

    Open full market view →

Resolved

Event statistics
24h vol
$65k
Volume
$753k
Liquidity
$44k
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Oct 21, 11:59 PM ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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