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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

Openone winner

Selected outcome

October 18

No

October 18 · No

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Oct 21, 11:59 PM ET

Price

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Markets

  • October 21

    Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 21, 2026?

    No quote

    Open · $4,253 24h · $13k vol

    wide spread 3–14%

    Bid 2.9¢ · Ask 13.6¢

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  • October 22

    Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?

    6%

    Open · $5,432 24h · $21k vol

    Bid 3.3¢ · Ask 7.7¢

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  • October 23

    Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 23, 2026?

    2%

    Open · $1,405 24h · $6,279 vol

    Bid 1.3¢ · Ask 3.4¢

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  • October 24

    Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 24, 2026?

    3%

    Open · $1,130 24h · $5,041 vol

    Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 5¢

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  • October 25

    Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 25, 2026?

    2%

    Open · $4,286 24h · $5,365 vol

    Bid 0.8¢ · Ask 3.9¢

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  • October 26

    Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 26, 2026?

    6%

    Open · $684 24h · $5,510 vol

    Bid 4.1¢ · Ask 7.7¢

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  • October 27

    Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?

    27%

    Open · $3,133 24h · $13k vol

    Bid 26¢ · Ask 27.1¢

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  • October 28

    Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 28, 2026?

    9%

    Open · $644 24h · $4,977 vol

    Bid 5.8¢ · Ask 11.9¢

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  • October 29

    Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?

    9%

    Open · $1,180 24h · $7,327 vol

    Bid 7.1¢ · Ask 9.9¢

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  • October 30

    Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 30, 2026?

    3%

    Open · $1,622 24h · $2,867 vol

    Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 4¢

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  • October 31

    Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026?

    2%

    Open · $1,133 24h · $5,147 vol

    Bid 0.7¢ · Ask 2.6¢

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  • No release by October 31

    Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?

    24%

    Open · $5,202 24h · $64k vol

    Bid 23.1¢ · Ask 25.4¢

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Resolved

Event statistics
24h vol
$38k
Volume
$235k
Liquidity
$58k
Open int.
—

How this resolves

One winner.

Scheduled end
Oct 21, 11:59 PM ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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