← Polymarket

Next Gemini Argon released by...?

Open

Selected outcome

December 31

wide spread 11–22%

December 31

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET

Price

Loading price history.

Markets

  • December 31

    Next Gemini Argon released by December 31, 2026?

    No quote

    Open · $12 24h · $1,345 vol

    wide spread 11–22%

    Bid 11¢ · Ask 22¢

    Open full market view →
  • January 31

    Next Gemini Argon released by January 31, 2027?

    36%

    Open · $29 24h · $2,373 vol

    Bid 33¢ · Ask 39¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
$41
Volume
$3,718
Liquidity
$1,279
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Argon model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Argon" and be a new Gemini Argon model release designated as newer than Gemini 4 Argon (gemini-4-argon, released October 13, 2026), regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors, including decimal version increases, new whole-number generations, or newer dated builds. For example, a newer Argon model named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Argon, including a decimal increase such as a 4.1 or a new whole-number generation such as a Gemini 5 Argon, or a newer Argon release under a new, distinct model identifier, would qualify, while Gemini 4 Argon itself, including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, price change, or thinking-level setting of it, and models whose name does not include "Argon," such as Gemini Pro, Gemini Flash, or Gemini Flash-Lite models, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

View on Polymarket