Selected outcome
November 30
wide spread 14–71%
32%
November 30 · 32%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 30, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
November 30Next Mistral Medium (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026?
32%
Open · $0 24h · $243 vol
wide spread 14–71%
Bid 14¢ · Ask 71¢
January 31Next Mistral Medium (3.6+) released by January 31, 2027?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $342 vol
wide spread 26–90%
Bid 26¢ · Ask 90¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 30, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mistral AI's next Mistral Medium model (3.6+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mistral" and "Medium" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.6 or higher named in the same manner as Mistral Medium 3.1 or Mistral Medium 3.5 would qualify, including a skipped decimal or a new whole-number generation such as Mistral Medium 4. A new Mistral Medium model released after Mistral Medium 3.5 that Mistral designates only by a dated build, in the manner of mistral-medium-2508, without a version number, will also qualify. Models which retain a version designation of 3.5 or below, such as Mistral Medium 3.5 (released April 28, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, and models whose name does not include "Medium," such as Mistral Large 4, Mistral Small 4, or Ministral, Magistral, Codestral, Devstral, Pixtral, or Voxtral models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Mistral AI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Mistral AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.