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Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by...?

Open

Selected outcome

February 28

75%

February 28 · 75%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • December 31

    Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by December 31, 2026?

    37%

    Open · $0 24h · $385 vol

    wide spread 17–68%

    Bid 17¢ · Ask 68¢

    Open full market view →
  • February 28

    Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by February 28, 2027?

    75%

    Open · $40 24h · $1,190 vol

    Bid 74¢ · Ask 75¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
$40
Volume
$1,575
Liquidity
$566
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mistral AI's next Mistral Small model (4.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Mistral" and "Small" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Mistral Small 3.2 or Mistral Small 4 would qualify, including a skipped decimal or a new whole-number generation such as Mistral Small 5. A new Mistral Small model released after Mistral Small 4 that Mistral designates only by a dated build, in the manner of mistral-small-2603, without a version number, will also qualify. Models which retain a version designation of 4.0 or below, such as Mistral Small 4 (released March 16, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, experimental or Labs variants such as Mistral Small Creative, and models whose name does not include "Small," such as Mistral Large 4, Mistral Medium 3.5, or Ministral, Magistral, Codestral, Devstral, Pixtral, or Voxtral models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Mistral AI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Mistral AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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