Selected outcome
No release by October 31
92%
No release by October 31 · 92%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 21, 7:59 PM ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
October 21Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 21, 2026?
<1%
Open · $0 24h · $3,064 vol
last
Ask 0.1¢
- October 22
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 22, 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $572 vol
Bid 0.2¢ · Ask 1¢
- October 23
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 23, 2026?
<1%
Open · $0 24h · $3,173 vol
last
Ask 0.2¢
- October 24
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 24, 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $534 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 0.9¢
- October 25
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 25, 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $540 vol
Bid 0.2¢ · Ask 0.9¢
- October 26
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 26, 2026?
<1%
Open · $0 24h · $1,169 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 0.2¢
- October 27
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 27, 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $359 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 1¢
- October 28
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 28, 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $3,340 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 1¢
- October 29
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 29, 2026?
<1%
Open · $0 24h · $345 vol
last
Ask 1¢
- October 30
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 30, 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $569 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 2.2¢
- October 31
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 31, 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $738 vol
Bid 0.2¢ · Ask 0.8¢
- No release by October 31
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?
92%
Open · $859 24h · $18k vol
Bid 91¢ · Ask 93¢
Resolved
- October 7
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 7, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $1,252 vol
- October 8
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 8, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $1,052 vol
- October 9
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 9, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $1,283 vol
- October 10
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 10, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $680 vol
- October 11
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 11, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $719 vol
- October 12
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 12, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $282 vol
- October 13
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 13, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $921 vol
- October 14
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 14, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $2,912 vol
- October 15
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 15, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $574 vol
- October 16
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 16, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $1,696 vol
- October 17
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 17, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $1,595 vol
- October 18
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 18, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $613 vol
- October 19
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 19, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $2,322 vol
- October 20
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 20, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $585 24h · $1,155 vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Oct 21, 7:59 PM ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.