Selected outcome
1.30–1.34ºC
wide spread 1–27%
14%
1.30–1.34ºC · 14%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 1, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- data.giss.nasa.gov (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
<1.30ºCWill global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in October 2026?
4%
Open · $0 24h · $1,135 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 7.5¢
- 1.30–1.34ºC
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026?
14%
Open · $0 24h · $244 vol
wide spread 1–27%
Bid 1¢ · Ask 27¢
- 1.35–1.39ºC
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026?
8%
Open · $0 24h · $238 vol
wide spread 1–57%
Bid 1¢ · Ask 57¢
- 1.40–1.44ºC
Will global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026?
43%
Open · $0 24h · $95 vol
wide spread 5–59%
Bid 5¢ · Ask 59¢
- 1.45–1.49ºC
Will global temperature increase by between 1.45ºC and 1.49ºC in October 2026?
30%
Open · $0 24h · $98 vol
wide spread 1–57%
Bid 1¢ · Ask 57¢
- >1.49ºC
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?
No quote
Open · $100 24h · $812 vol
wide spread 35–52%
Bid 35¢ · Ask 52¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Dec 1, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.