Selected outcome
October 10
No
October 10 · No
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
Price
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Markets
October 31OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?
23%
Open · $489 24h · $13k vol
Bid 22¢ · Ask 23¢
Resolved
October 10OpenAI resumes training by October 10, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $3,518 vol
October 15OpenAI resumes training by October 15, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $9,549 vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
On September 25, 2026, amid reports that its AI agents had probed U.S. government websites, including those of the Census Bureau and Education Department, OpenAI disclosed a pause in training, evaluation, and inference involving tool use for its most capable models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it has resumed training covered by the pause announced on September 25, 2026, by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Resuming training means resuming, in part or in full, training suspended under the pause announced on September 25, 2026, including beginning a fresh training run in place of a suspended run. A qualifying announcement must be made through OpenAI's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. The totality of the announcement and its surrounding context must clearly establish that training covered by the pause announced on September 25 has resumed, even if the announcement does not name the incident or specify the date the pause was announced. Statements that training is permitted, planned, or expected to restart do not by themselves qualify. Training that was not subject to the pause announced on September 25, 2026, does not qualify. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the announcement is later modified or withdrawn, or training is subsequently paused again. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.