Selected outcome
September 20
last
<1%
September 20 · <1%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Sep 20, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
September 20Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?
<1%
Open · $9,127 24h · $20k vol
last
Ask 0.1¢
September 21Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 21?
No quote
Open · $1 24h · $28k vol
wide spread 60–91%
Bid 60¢ · Ask 91¢
September 22Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 22?
26%
Open · $217 24h · $2,279 vol
wide spread 8–71%
Bid 8¢ · Ask 71¢
September 23Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 23?
89%
Open · $0 24h · $11k vol
wide spread 6–92%
Bid 6¢ · Ask 92¢
September 24Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 24?
No quote
Open · $1 24h · $40k vol
wide spread 34–90%
Bid 34¢ · Ask 90¢
September 25Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 25?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $2,142 vol
wide spread 9–81%
Bid 9¢ · Ask 81¢
September 26Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26?
80%
Open · $160 24h · $3,166 vol
Bid 76¢ · Ask 84¢
September 27Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27?
49%
Open · $125 24h · $14k vol
Bid 46¢ · Ask 52¢
September 28Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 28?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $39k vol
wide spread 31–93%
Bid 31¢ · Ask 93¢
September 29Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 29?
78%
Open · $61 24h · $9,211 vol
Bid 74¢ · Ask 82¢
September 30Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 30?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $41k vol
wide spread 22–93%
Bid 22.2¢ · Ask 92.9¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Sep 20, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, the Houthis, and a consensus of credible reporting.