Selected outcome
October 29
60%
October 29 · 60%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 4, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
October 4Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?
No quote
Open · $2 24h · $4,630 vol
wide spread 30–94%
Bid 30.4¢ · Ask 93.7¢
- October 6
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6?
78%
Open · $167 24h · $56k vol
Bid 74¢ · Ask 82¢
- October 8
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8?
91%
Open · $0 24h · $77k vol
wide spread 56–92%
Bid 56¢ · Ask 92¢
- October 11
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 11?
80%
Open · $4 24h · $40k vol
wide spread 9–94%
Bid 9¢ · Ask 94¢
- October 12
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 12?
No quote
Open · $6 24h · $64k vol
wide spread 29–94%
Bid 29¢ · Ask 94¢
- October 14
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 14?
73%
Open · $0 24h · $787 vol
wide spread 6–94%
Bid 6¢ · Ask 94¢
- October 15
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 15?
94%
Open · $0 24h · $705 vol
wide spread 8–94%
Bid 8¢ · Ask 94¢
- October 16
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16?
84%
Open · $84 24h · $1,386 vol
Bid 80¢ · Ask 88¢
- October 17
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 17?
78%
Open · $0 24h · $995 vol
Bid 74¢ · Ask 82¢
- October 18
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18?
77%
Open · $54 24h · $3,216 vol
Bid 73¢ · Ask 81¢
- October 19
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19?
30%
Open · $160 24h · $1,655 vol
wide spread 23–77%
Bid 23¢ · Ask 77¢
- October 20
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 20?
77%
Open · $130 24h · $4,654 vol
Bid 73¢ · Ask 81¢
- October 21
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21?
78%
Open · $322 24h · $4,753 vol
wide spread 66–78%
Bid 66¢ · Ask 78¢
- October 22
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 22?
71%
Open · $71 24h · $2,853 vol
wide spread 62–79%
Bid 62¢ · Ask 79¢
- October 23
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?
61%
Open · $2,049 24h · $10k vol
Bid 60¢ · Ask 62¢
- October 24
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 24?
52%
Open · $199 24h · $3,495 vol
wide spread 52–67%
Bid 52¢ · Ask 67¢
- October 25
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?
49%
Open · $103 24h · $7,337 vol
wide spread 21–54%
Bid 21¢ · Ask 54¢
- October 26
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 26?
60%
Open · $423 24h · $4,532 vol
wide spread 51–64%
Bid 51¢ · Ask 64¢
- October 27
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 27?
63%
Open · $456 24h · $5,790 vol
Bid 61¢ · Ask 64¢
- October 28
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 28?
62%
Open · $490 24h · $3,445 vol
Bid 61¢ · Ask 62¢
- October 29
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?
60%
Open · $235 24h · $85k vol
Bid 59¢ · Ask 61¢
- October 30
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?
62%
Open · $63k 24h · $67k vol
Bid 61¢ · Ask 63¢
- October 31
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 31?
59%
Open · $172 24h · $6,722 vol
Bid 58¢ · Ask 60¢
Resolved
- October 1
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $454k vol
- October 2
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $107k vol
- October 7
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 7?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $3,444 vol
- October 9
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 9?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $27k vol
- October 10
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 10?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $3,660 vol
- October 13
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 13?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $25k vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 4, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, the Houthis, and a consensus of credible reporting.