Selected outcome
October 28
wide spread 7–92%
October 28
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 2, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
October 2Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 2, 2026?
46%
Open · $0 24h · $1,298 vol
wide spread 24–>99%
Bid 24.1¢ · Ask 99.7¢
- October 4
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026?
93%
Open · $0 24h · $1,284 vol
wide spread 6–96%
Bid 6.2¢ · Ask 96¢
- October 5
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 5, 2026?
93%
Open · $0 24h · $999 vol
wide spread 3–95%
Bid 3.4¢ · Ask 95.4¢
- October 11
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 11, 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $919 vol
wide spread 10–95%
Bid 10.4¢ · Ask 94.7¢
- October 15
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026?
12%
Open · $69 24h · $1,557 vol
wide spread 2–77%
Bid 2¢ · Ask 77¢
- October 17
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 17, 2026?
6%
Open · $313 24h · $1,055 vol
Bid 3¢ · Ask 9¢
- October 18
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 18, 2026?
99%
Open · $326 24h · $1,065 vol
Bid 98¢ · Ask 99.9¢
- October 19
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 19, 2026?
20%
Open · $154 24h · $314 vol
wide spread 20–31%
Bid 20¢ · Ask 31¢
- October 20
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 20, 2026?
No quote
Open · $725 24h · $1,191 vol
wide spread 85–96%
Bid 85¢ · Ask 96¢
- October 21
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 21, 2026?
95%
Open · $697 24h · $817 vol
wide spread 77–98%
Bid 77.1¢ · Ask 97.9¢
- October 22
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 22, 2026?
31%
Open · $241 24h · $241 vol
wide spread 22–52%
Bid 22¢ · Ask 52¢
- October 23
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 23, 2026?
47%
Open · $47 24h · $47 vol
Bid 43¢ · Ask 50¢
- October 24
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 24, 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $0 vol
wide spread 8–93%
Bid 8¢ · Ask 93¢
- October 25
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 25, 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $0 vol
wide spread 8–92%
Bid 8¢ · Ask 92¢
- October 26
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 26, 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $0 vol
wide spread 6–93%
Bid 6¢ · Ask 93¢
- October 27
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 27, 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $0 vol
wide spread 8–93%
Bid 8¢ · Ask 93¢
- October 28
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 28, 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $0 vol
wide spread 7–92%
Bid 7¢ · Ask 92¢
- October 29
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 29, 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $0 vol
wide spread 8–93%
Bid 8¢ · Ask 93¢
- October 30
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 30, 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $0 vol
wide spread 8–93%
Bid 8¢ · Ask 93¢
- October 31
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 31, 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $0 vol
wide spread 7–92%
Bid 7¢ · Ask 92¢
Resolved
- October 1
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 1, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $1,959 vol
- October 3
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 3, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $1,583 vol
- October 6
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 6, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $4,236 vol
- October 7
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 7, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $2,217 vol
- October 8
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 8, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $934 vol
- October 9
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 9, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $674 vol
- October 10
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 10, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $353 vol
- October 12
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 12, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $3,556 vol
- October 13
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 13, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $24k vol
- October 14
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 14, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $1,345 vol
- October 16
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 16, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $1,651 vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 2, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (UTC) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.