Selected outcome
September 29
93%
September 29 · 93%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Sep 20, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
September 20Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 20, 2026?
9%
Open · $0 24h · $43k vol
Bid 4.1¢ · Ask 12.9¢
September 21Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 21, 2026?
93%
Open · $0 24h · $2,754 vol
Bid 90¢ · Ask 95.8¢
September 22Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 22, 2026?
4%
Open · $53 24h · $2,562 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 8¢
September 24Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 24, 2026?
8%
Open · $0 24h · $963 vol
Bid 3¢ · Ask 12¢
September 26Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 26, 2026?
6%
Open · $0 24h · $16k vol
Bid 2.2¢ · Ask 9.9¢
September 27Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 27, 2026?
7%
Open · $125 24h · $623 vol
wide spread 2–24%
Bid 2¢ · Ask 24¢
September 28Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026?
88%
Open · $81 24h · $26k vol
wide spread 76–99%
Bid 76¢ · Ask 99¢
September 29Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 29, 2026?
93%
Open · $0 24h · $11k vol
Bid 90¢ · Ask 95.9¢
September 30Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 30, 2026?
No quote
Open · $218 24h · $19k vol
wide spread <1–22%
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 22¢
Resolved
September 25Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 25, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $59k vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Sep 20, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.