Selected outcome
October 15
Yes
October 15 · Yes
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 22, 11:59 PM ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
October 31US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
82%
Open · $158k 24h · $4.9M vol
Bid 81¢ · Ask 82¢
November 30US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
47%
Open · $739 24h · $768k vol
Bid 46¢ · Ask 47¢
December 31US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
35%
Open · $8,505 24h · $642k vol
Bid 34¢ · Ask 36¢
November 15US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
59%
Open · $29k 24h · $383k vol
Bid 58¢ · Ask 59¢
October 24US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?
94%
Open · $45k 24h · $234k vol
Bid 93¢ · Ask 94¢
November 22US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?
53%
Open · $5,349 24h · $30k vol
Bid 52¢ · Ask 53¢
November 8US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
70%
Open · $8,376 24h · $75k vol
Bid 69¢ · Ask 71¢
October 22US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
98%
Open · $137k 24h · $1.5M vol
Bid 97.6¢ · Ask 97.7¢
October 28US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
86%
Open · $43k 24h · $228k vol
Bid 85¢ · Ask 87¢
Resolved
October 7US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $524k vol
October 15US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $2.1M vol
October 12US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $2M vol
October 5US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $135k vol
October 9US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $345k vol
October 17US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $903k vol
October 16US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $428k vol
October 18US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $657k vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 22, 11:59 PM ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.