Selected outcome
15–25%
9%
15–25% · 9%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 30, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
<5%Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on December 31?
4%
Open · $10 24h · $1,482 vol
Bid 2.1¢ · Ask 6.7¢
- 5–15%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?
86%
Open · $1,501 24h · $5,401 vol
Bid 84¢ · Ask 88¢
- 15–25%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on December 31?
9%
Open · $10 24h · $2,277 vol
Bid 8¢ · Ask 9¢
- 25–35%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on December 31?
5%
Open · $10 24h · $899 vol
Bid 1.6¢ · Ask 8.2¢
- 35%+
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on December 31?
4%
Open · $27 24h · $1,651 vol
Bid 1.4¢ · Ask 6.6¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Dec 30, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.