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US Tornadoes in October 2026

Openone winner

Selected outcome

Under 20

last

<1%

Under 20 · <1%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Nov 11, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • Under 20

    Will there be under 20 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?

    <1%

    Open · $10 24h · $3,056 vol

    last

    Ask 0.9¢

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  • 20 - 34

    Will there be between 20 and 34 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?

    5%

    Open · $634 24h · $4,657 vol

    Bid 0.5¢ · Ask 9.2¢

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  • 35 - 59

    Will there be between 35 and 59 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?

    84%

    Open · $2,335 24h · $8,543 vol

    Bid 83¢ · Ask 85¢

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  • 60 - 89

    Will there be between 60 and 89 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?

    8%

    Open · $1,148 24h · $6,777 vol

    Bid 6.4¢ · Ask 8.8¢

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  • 90 or more

    Will there be 90 or more tornadoes in the US in October 2026?

    3%

    Open · $867 24h · $5,096 vol

    Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 5.2¢

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Event statistics
24h vol
$4,994
Volume
$28k
Liquidity
$8,316
Open int.
—

How this resolves

One winner.

Scheduled end
Nov 11, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on November 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

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