Selected outcome
500–600B
5%
500–600B · 5%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Apr 30, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- 500–600B
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 500B and 600B?
5%
Open · $0 24h · $454 vol
Bid 2.4¢ · Ask 7.3¢
- 600–700B
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 600B and 700B?
10%
Open · $0 24h · $551 vol
Bid 5.9¢ · Ask 14.4¢
- 700–800B
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 700B and 800B?
15%
Open · $0 24h · $725 vol
wide spread 15–26%
Bid 15¢ · Ask 26¢
- 800–900B
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?
29%
Open · $0 24h · $1,955 vol
wide spread 24–62%
Bid 24¢ · Ask 62¢
- 900B–1T
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?
20%
Open · $0 24h · $1,573 vol
wide spread 7–20%
Bid 7¢ · Ask 20¢
- 1T–1.1T
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T?
4%
Open · $0 24h · $1,572 vol
Bid 0.8¢ · Ask 6.7¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Apr 30, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.