What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

This market resolves to "Yes" if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a non-Iranian fund or substantive funding mechanism for Iranian reconstruction or economic development, or creates an obligation for non-Iranian actors to commit funding to such reconstruction or development, has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to "No." The instrument must either directly establish a fund or substantive funding mechanism the purpose of which is to hold or collect, and distribute funds used in the reconstruction or economic development of Iran, or establish a binding obligation for actors not under the control of Iran to commit funding to the reconstruction or economic development of Iran. A substantive funding mechanism refers to a specifically defined structure or revenue source that channels non-Iranian funds toward Iranian reconstruction, such as the establishment of a Strait of Hormuz transit toll with proceeds designated for that purpose. Commitments to establish a plan for funding Iranian reconstruction, or to seek funds, which do not create a fund or substantive funding mechanism or establish a funding obligation for a non-Iranian actor, do not qualify. The release of Iranian frozen assets, or the withdrawal of economic sanctions on Iran will not qualify. The funding must come, in whole or in part, from sources other than Iran; a mechanism or obligation funded solely by Iran, or solely by released Iranian assets, does not qualify. The funding need not come from the United States; funding from third-party entities, established as part of the instrument, will qualify. The establishment of a non-Iranian fund or substantive funding mechanism for, or an obligation for non-Iranian actors to commit funding to, Iranian reconstruction or economic development must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A presently-agreed obligation to establish such a fund or mechanism, or a presently-agreed obligation to commit funds, will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the implementation schedule or exact dollar amount, remain subject to future arrangements. A conditional commitment the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to negotiate a fund in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify. Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplom