Selected outcome
2.0–2.25
2%
2.0–2.25 · 2%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Mar 31, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
Under 1.5Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?
<1%
Open · $0 24h · $1,686 vol
last
Ask 0.1¢
- 1.5–2.0
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?
<1%
Open · $0 24h · $4,719 vol
last
Ask 1¢
- 2.0–2.25
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?
2%
Open · $0 24h · $5,891 vol
Bid 0.7¢ · Ask 3¢
- 2.25–2.5
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
27%
Open · $102 24h · $50k vol
Bid 26¢ · Ask 28¢
- Over 2.5
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
72%
Open · $534 24h · $51k vol
Bid 71¢ · Ask 72¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Mar 31, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.