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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Openone winner

Selected outcome

5

<1%

5 · <1%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Dec 30, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • 1

    Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

    84%

    Open · $229 24h · $724k vol

    Bid 81¢ · Ask 86¢

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  • 2

    Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

    15%

    Open · $327 24h · $474k vol

    Bid 14¢ · Ask 16¢

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  • 3

    Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?

    <1%

    Open · $41 24h · $534k vol

    Bid 0.2¢ · Ask 0.3¢

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  • 4

    Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

    <1%

    Open · $0 24h · $555k vol

    Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 0.2¢

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  • 5

    Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?

    <1%

    Open · $1,042 24h · $906k vol

    Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 0.2¢

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  • 6 or lower

    Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?

    <1%

    Open · $88 24h · $605k vol

    last

    Ask 0.2¢

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Event statistics
24h vol
$1,726
Volume
$3.8M
Liquidity
$219k
Open int.
—

How this resolves

One winner.

Scheduled end
Dec 30, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

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