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Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?

Open

Selected outcome

Peru

wide spread 6–24%

17%

Peru · 17%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Nov 3, 2026 ET
Resolution source
earthquake.usgs.gov (opens in a new tab)

Price

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Markets

  • Indonesia

    Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?

    30%

    Open · $0 24h · $1,818 vol

    Bid 28¢ · Ask 31¢

    Open full market view →
  • Japan

    Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?

    No quote

    Open · $0 24h · $872 vol

    wide spread 19–54%

    Bid 19¢ · Ask 54¢

    Open full market view →
  • Chile

    Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Chile this month?

    19%

    Open · $20 24h · $865 vol

    wide spread 9–38%

    Bid 9¢ · Ask 38¢

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  • Mexico

    Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Mexico this month?

    26%

    Open · $20 24h · $1,537 vol

    Bid 23¢ · Ask 29¢

    Open full market view →
  • United States

    Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in United States this month?

    20%

    Open · $141 24h · $650 vol

    wide spread 16–34%

    Bid 16¢ · Ask 34¢

    Open full market view →
  • Philippines

    Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Philippines this month?

    36%

    Open · $0 24h · $849 vol

    wide spread 34–53%

    Bid 34¢ · Ask 53¢

    Open full market view →
  • Peru

    Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Peru this month?

    17%

    Open · $17 24h · $982 vol

    wide spread 6–24%

    Bid 6¢ · Ask 24¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
$198
Volume
$7,574
Liquidity
$1,198
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Nov 3, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first. If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after November 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point. The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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