Selected outcome
Anthropic
22%
Anthropic · 22%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
AlibabaAlibaba announces a training pause by October 31?
2%
Open · $0 24h · $506 vol
wide spread 2–12%
Bid 1.6¢ · Ask 11.9¢
SpaceXAISpaceXAI announces a training pause by October 31?
3%
Open · $0 24h · $1,629 vol
Bid 1.5¢ · Ask 4.5¢
DeepSeekDeepSeek announces a training pause by October 31?
3%
Open · $0 24h · $855 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 4.7¢
MoonshotMoonshot announces a training pause by October 31?
3%
Open · $0 24h · $723 vol
Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 4.9¢
MistralMistral announces a training pause by October 31?
No quote
Open · $91 24h · $588 vol
wide spread 16–56%
Bid 15.5¢ · Ask 55.7¢
MicrosoftMicrosoft announces a training pause by October 31?
2%
Open · $0 24h · $1,822 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 2¢
ByteDanceByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?
2%
Open · $0 24h · $925 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 2.6¢
AnthropicAnthropic announces a training pause by October 31?
22%
Open · $0 24h · $2,859 vol
Bid 20¢ · Ask 24¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
On August 18, 2026, OpenAI announced it had paused some frontier reinforcement learning training to meet alignment, security, and monitoring standards, and on September 1, 2026, Anthropic disclosed that it had paused some training following unauthorized actions by its models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause training of one or more of its AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that the company has paused, is pausing, or will pause training, or must disclose a pause that the company had not previously announced. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. A pause of any duration qualifies, including a pause limited to particular models, training methods, or training environments. Statements that describe slowing development, adding review steps, or considering a pause without stating that training has been or will be paused will not qualify. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.