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Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Open

Selected outcome

Anthropic

61%

Anthropic · 61%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • OpenAI

    Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    13%

    Open · $80 24h · $40k vol

    Bid 12¢ · Ask 14¢

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  • Alibaba

    Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    5%

    Open · $0 24h · $5,665 vol

    Bid 4¢ · Ask 5¢

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  • xAI

    Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    7%

    Open · $0 24h · $11k vol

    Bid 6¢ · Ask 8¢

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  • ByteDance

    Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    1%

    Open · $0 24h · $4,739 vol

    Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 0.9¢

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  • Baidu

    Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    5%

    Open · $0 24h · $3,551 vol

    Bid 4¢ · Ask 6¢

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  • Moonshot

    Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    3%

    Open · $0 24h · $15k vol

    Bid 2¢ · Ask 3.6¢

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  • Amazon

    Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    4%

    Open · $0 24h · $9,194 vol

    Bid 1.7¢ · Ask 7.1¢

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  • Z.ai

    Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    4%

    Open · $0 24h · $8,032 vol

    Bid 4¢ · Ask 4.4¢

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  • Mistral

    Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    3%

    Open · $0 24h · $13k vol

    Bid 2.1¢ · Ask 3.1¢

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  • DeepSeek

    Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    6%

    Open · $500 24h · $25k vol

    Bid 5¢ · Ask 6¢

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  • Meituan

    Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    3%

    Open · $0 24h · $6,162 vol

    Bid 1.8¢ · Ask 3.2¢

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  • Meta

    Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    9%

    Open · $13 24h · $22k vol

    Bid 8¢ · Ask 9¢

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  • Microsoft

    Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    5%

    Open · $0 24h · $5,454 vol

    Bid 4¢ · Ask 5¢

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  • Anthropic

    Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    61%

    Open · $0 24h · $1,834 vol

    Bid 59¢ · Ask 63¢

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Event statistics
24h vol
$593
Volume
$218k
Liquidity
$65k
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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